PREDICTION: We have four holidays coming in in the last quarter of 2022. Thanks to U.S. consumption patterns (and according to historical trends), we can expect to see the market go up in Q4 as people anticipate a surge company earnings from increased consumer spending during the holidays.

RESULT: As correctly predicted and despite the 2022 yearly losses, the DJIA and S&P 500 broke their three-quarter losing streaks in the final quarter of the year. Both were up in Q4 +15.4% and 7.1% respectively.

PREDICTION: Based on the big three valuation metrics I looked at (Tobin’s Q, Buffett Ratio, and the CAPE Ratio), stocks are still expensive. One of two things will happen from here: Stocks will increase their earnings by a large degree (not happening in this environment), or stock prices will come down in 2023. I expect we’ll see another leg down in early 2023.

RESULT: Pending…

PREDICTION: Typically, October is the best year for stocks, specifically in midterm years. That trend will continue this year.

RESULT: As correctly predicted and despite the 2022 yearly losses, the DJIA and S&P 500 broke their three-quarter losing streaks in the final quarter of the year. Both were up in Q4 +15.4% and 7.1% respectively.

PREDICTION: No one is expecting inflation to come down as fast as it is… and will in 2023. Based on the inflation trendline I’m seeing, inflation expectations are lagging where I expect inflation to be in 2023. This will surprise investors… in a good way. And it’ll boost stocks.

RESULT: Pending…

PREDICTION: Based on the yield curve inverting and fears of a big looming recession, we’ll in all likelihood experience another leg down in stocks in early 2023.

RESULT: Pending…

PREDICTION: Central bankers worldwide have publicly indicated they'll reverse quantitative tightening and step in to prop up markets if things get too sell-offy. Should we see steep and prolonged market declines in 2023, I expect to see a reversal of quantitative tightening as the Fed moves back to quantitative easing.

RESULT: Pending…